Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Why does Nassim Taleb question the value of forecasting? How do the authors respond to his claims? Address the role of paradox in their response.

To what extent do the authors suggest that anyone can be a superforecaster? What limitations might prevent some people from accessing this rank?

What are the reasons behind the current mediocrity in forecasting? Why might some people and institutions be invested in keeping the quality of forecasts low?

What role does the Good Judgment Project play in the improvement of forecasting? To what extent does the GJP democratize the forecasting process?

Is forecasting more a science or an art? Using the text and examples from the news, give reasons for your answer.

What significance do hedgehogs and foxes have in forecasting? How do the authors’ portraits of the Good Judgment Project’s superforecasters conform to the fox archetype? Further, why is the fox archetype’s intelligence undervalued in US culture?

According to the authors, what is the optimal way that forecasters should respond to incoming information? Why can giving too much attention to news be as damaging to forecasts as ignoring news?

What is aggregation and why is it a crucial tool in forecasting? What caution should forecasters use when aggregating results? Provide a real-life example of the pitfalls of aggregation gone wrong.